A Counterfactual Baseline for Assessing Future Environmental Impact: A Case Study of the Belt and Road Initiative

The impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on environment is an important but controversial topic. But assessing it faces a significant challenge for separating its policy from overall effect economic development that will also have environmental impacts. This paper attempts to provide evolutionary counterfactual baseline evaluate BRI, based distribution dynamics approach mobility probability plots (MPPs). Our estimation results suggest while majority BRI economies lower their emission levels compared with world average, there are differences between non-BRI countrie’s patterns dynamics. than counterparts in absence policy, indicating difference future emissions countries should not be completely attributed BRI. Instead, take measures prevent certain moving upwards energy intensity paths through intervention, international cooperation, inclusive project assessment process.